NOTE: This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any part of this article as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Always do your own research.

The S&P 500 lost 18.11% in 2022. A $10,000 investment in SPY on January 1, 2022 would have yielded a final balance of $8,183, assuming no additional contributions and reinvesting dividends.

Will it be up, down or flat in 2023? Who knows. But these are my thoughts today:

Between 1992 and 2022, annual returns were down in 2000, 2001, and 2002. Other than 2000-2002, there wasn’t a period where the market was down two years in a row (between 1992-2022).

No one can predict the future. However, my belief is that the S&P 500 will end 2023 between flat and plus 2%. In between there will be a lot of volatility.

For someone looking to be in the index, I think the equal weighted index is a better choice than the traditional market cap weighted index funds. The reason is that I believe Process Industries will do better than tech, and better than FANG in particular. Time will tell.

The biggest story in the next five years is the increase in both domestic and North American manufacturing capacity, relative to China; and the aggressive position being taken by the U.S. against China in relation to trade. See semiconductor drama for a vivid example. More on this in another post.

Happy trading.